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The NFL hosted a full, 16-game slate in Week 15 for just the second time since bye weeks began in Week 5.
USA TODAY Sports tasked Microsoft Copilot AI with picking the results of all 16 of those games. The results? The AI-powered chatbot went 11-5, marking the first time since Week 12 it earned double-digit wins in a single week.
Copilot particularly thrived on the Sunday afternoon slate, as all 11 of its wins came in the early- and late-afternoon contests. The chatbot didn’t do as well picking the prime-time games, going 0-3 across the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games thanks to a couple of upsets.
Copilot will look to improve upon those prime-time results in Week 16, as USA TODAY Sports continues its experiment of having the chatbot predict the results of every NFL game in 2025.
As always, a simple approach was used to gather Copilot’s picks. The AI chatbot was prompted to pick the winner of all 16 NFL Week 16 matchups and to provide a score projection for each matchup. The query used to generate the results was as follows:
The prompt was then repeated across all of the NFL’s matchups for this week, with the proper teams swapped in for each additional query.
Most of the time, Copilot was able to interpret the prompts without issue. That said, the chatbot occasionally struggled to pull the correct injury data and sometimes referenced matchups between the two teams from previous seasons rather than Week 16 of this season. Copilot providing outdated or incorrect information on occasion was not a major surprise, as some Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to keep up with the latest sports news and updates.
Copilot was simply prompted to fix these mistakes and reassess the prompt when they occurred.
Below is a summation of Copilot’s picks for Week 16, along with a brief, human-crafted analysis of each of the chatbot’s answers.
AI’s take: Copilot doesn’t like that Rams receiver Davante Adams “is trending the wrong way” for this game as he battles a hamstring injury. The chatbot also noted its confidence in Seattle’s top-five scoring defense controlling this game at home with Adams out of the lineup, leading it to back Seattle in this Week 11 rematch.
Our take: Sam Darnold had four interceptions last time the Seahawks faced the Rams. He will need to considerably clean up his issues against Chris Shula’s defense this time around for Copilot’s projection to unfold. Given that the Rams still have Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and a strong running game, it’s hard to recommend fading them even if Adams doesn’t play.
AI’s take: Philadelphia will win the NFC East on Saturday, Copilot says. It believes the Eagles will be able to get plenty of pressure on Marcus Mariota, who it noted is “far less dynamic” than Jayden Daniels, while the team’s offensive awakening against the Raiders has Copilot believing Philadelphia can find consistent success against a leaky Washington defense.
Our take: The Commanders have the third-worst defensive EPA per play in the league, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, and allowed an average of 38 points per game across three matchups with the Eagles last season. Philadelphia should be able to cruise here, provided its offense builds on its performance against the Raiders.
AI’s take: Copilot is worried about Green Bay’s pass rush, which was “weakened” by Micah Parsons‘ injury. It also expressed concerns about Chicago’s receiving corps, given the injury questions about Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, but opined the Bears’ running game should be enough to prop up its offense.
Our take: Parsons’ ACL tear figures to fundamentally change how the Packers defense operates. Jeff Hafley should be able to figure things out, but doing so on a short week may be tough. Don’t be surprised if Chicago earns vengeance against Green Bay and takes firm control of the NFC North on Saturday.
AI’s take: Copilot does not seem to be a fan of Shedeur Sanders, noting he “has struggled” and that the Browns offense has operated with “poor overall offensive efficiency.” The chatbot praised Myles Garrett and the Browns defense for its performance but expressed concerns about the unit containing Josh Allen and James Cook.
Our take: The Browns should be able to run the ball better against the Bills, which will help Sanders. That said, Cleveland’s once-strong run defense has fallen off lately, allowing 137.9 rushing yards per game over its last seven contests. As such, it’s hard to imagine the Browns pulling off an upset here.
AI’s take: Copilot has the Cowboys’ playoff chances evaporating Saturday and Dallas losing Sunday. Why? The chatbot believes the Chargers’ “excellent” defense is a “strong counter” against a good, Dak Prescott-led Cowboys passing offense. It also believes the Chargers will “control tempo” with a run-heavy attack and wear out a leaky Dallas defense.
Our take: Dallas might be deflated if it’s eliminated from playoff contention Saturday, while the Chargers, who are battling for playoff seeding and a shot to stay alive in the AFC West race, have a lot for which to play. Backing the Chargers seems prudent here.
AI’s take: The Chiefs aren’t going to quit despite losing Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL and being eliminated from playoff contention, in Copilot’s estimation. It believes Kansas City will “play for pride” with Gardner Minshew at the helm and noted its confidence the veteran backup can keep the Chiefs competitive.
Our take: Minshew completed 66.3% of his passes for 2,013 yards, nine touchdowns and 10 interceptions with the Raiders last season. Those numbers aren’t awe-inspiring, but he has much better skill-position weapons surrounding him in Kansas City. He should keep the Chiefs competitive, as Copilot opined, but this may be a legitimate coin-flip game.
AI’s take: Copilot isn’t overly confident in the Bengals’ defense, but it loves the “high-end passing potential” of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase against Miami’s defense. That appears to be the main reason it is backing the Bengals in a game it believes both teams are “mentally checked out.”
Our take: The Dolphins allowed the Steelers to score touchdowns on four consecutive drives in their blowout, “Monday Night Football” loss that eliminated them from playoff contention. It’s hard to imagine them stopping Cincinnati’s offense, which should be motivated to perform well after being shut out by Baltimore.
AI’s take: These two teams are heading in opposite directions, in Copilot’s estimation. It pointed out the Saints’ back-to-back wins as a positive sign for Kellen Moore’s club, while opining that the Jets were “seemingly tanking” after starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook at quarterback. Beyond that, the chatbot likes New Orleans’ “solid” defense and “capable” offense in this key battle for 2026 NFL Draft positioning.
Our take: The Jets have allowed an average of 41 points per game over their last two outings. That led the team to fire defensive coordinator Steve Wilks. Even if Cook has a nice game against the Saints, Tyler Shough should have an advantage over a Jets stop unit that is in disarray.
AI’s take: Copilot credited the Vikings for making “defensive gains” of late and also lauded the “recent form” of the team’s offense. It also referred to the Giants as “undermanned” and seems to think J.J. McCarthy will continue to make strides as he has over the last couple of weeks.
Our take: McCarthy has posted back-to-back games with three total touchdowns and has looked more confident throwing the ball, especially to his tight ends. The Giants have allowed at least 24 points in each of their eight consecutive losses, so the Vikings figure to have another good matchup against an NFC East foe.
AI’s take: The Panthers and Buccaneers are tied atop the NFC South, but Copilot believes Carolina has the advantage as they meet for the first time in Week 16. The chatbot wants to back the Panthers’ “strong rushing attack” and isn’t confident in Tampa Bay, which has dropped five of its last six games.
Our take: The Buccaneers are pretty banged up on defense and recently placed cornerback Zyon McCollum on IR. That may force Kindle Vildor – who gave up a critical fourth-and-long completion against the Falcon – into more action. The Panthers seem like a slightly safer option in what figures to be a tight game.
AI’s take: Copilot described Denver’s pass rush as “powerful” and believes it will be “capable of disrupting Trevor Lawrence‘s rhythm.” It believes Jacksonville’s league-best run defense will help keep this a low-scoring game but that Denver will ultimately win at home.
Our take: The Broncos have won 11 consecutive games and have great home-field advantage in Denver. They also have a defense that is capable of slowing down Lawrence, who has been red-hot in recent weeks, so backing the Broncos is a sensible choice.
AI’s take: For some reason, Copilot has a lot of trouble identifying the Cardinals quarterback. This week, it inexplicably said Malik Nabers (yes, that Malik Nabers) was Arizona’s QB. After being corrected, it praised Jacoby Brissett for his performance this season but opined Atlanta would be able to “lean on” Bijan Robinson and its run game to lead the Falcons to victory.
Our take: This game might be more interesting if Nabers were playing quarterback, to be honest. Nonetheless, Copilot is on the right track here. The Cardinals have lost six consecutive games and have given up 40-plus points in back-to-back contests. Atlanta should run wild in a high-scoring matchup.
AI’s take: Copilot isn’t overly enthusiastic about the Steelers’ offense, calling it a “middling” unit. It also doesn’t like how Pittsburgh’s “porous” run defense matches up against Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, so it expects Detroit to win.
Our take: With the Bears and Packers facing each other again in Week 16, the Lions realistically can’t afford to lose to the Steelers. That doesn’t mean they will win, but their explosive offense can stress Pittsburgh’s defense in a way its recent opponents haven’t. Dan Campbell’s squad should find a way to win.
AI’s take: Copilot loves what it’s seeing from C.J. Stroud in recent weeks and expects he and the Texans’ “balanced” offensive attack will thrive against the Raiders. The chatbot was critical of Las Vegas’ inability to protect Geno Smith and doesn’t have confidence in the unit doing well against Houston’s defense.
Our take: The Raiders are averaging a league-worst 14 points per game while the Texans are allowing a league-best have the league’s top-ranked defense in terms of EPA per play. Good pick, Copilot!
AI’s take: Copilot seems to believe Derrick Henry will be able to get going against the Patriots after James Cook did well in Week 15. The chatbot thinks the Ravens will be able to control the clock with Henry, while Lamar Jackson will play an efficient game and guide Baltimore to a needed win on “Sunday Night Football.”
Our take: As long as the Patriots are without Milton Williams, their defense won’t quite be as strong as it was early in the season. Add in that the Ravens will be desperate for a win to stay within striking distance of the Steelers and Baltimore should be small favorites at home.
AI’s take: What did Copilot think of Philip Rivers‘ first start with the Colts? It liked the “ground-heavy, low-risk offense” the Colts ran to stay competitive but isn’t sure whether that strategy will earn them a win against the 49ers. The chatbot praised Christian McCaffrey and the “efficient” 49ers offense and believes it will find a way to beat the Colts.
Our take: Rivers was solid enough considering he had been retired for five years before last week’s game. Still, he doesn’t have much arm strength, so the Colts will be limited in what they can do through the air. That should be enough to give the 49ers an edge as Indianapolis falls further behind in the AFC playoff race.
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