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After going 8-8 with its picks in the first week of the 2025 NFL season, Microsoft Copilot AI enjoyed its first winning week in Week 2.
The AI chatbot managed a record of 11-5 while making selections for all of the NFL’s 16 Week 2 matchups. Copilot didn’t have many notable upset wins, but it did have some strong calls, including predicting the Buffalo Bills would score 30 points against the New York Jets.
Can Copilot continue its success in Week 3? USA TODAY Sports decided to give it another shot to complete the NFL’s game slate, while also seeing if the chatbot ended up with any hot takes.
As always, the process of collecting the picks was simple. The AI chatbot was prompted to pick a result for each of the 16 Week 3 matchups. The basic form of the query used to generate the results was as follows:
The appropriate matchups were swapped into the prompt as it was repeated to generate the AI chatbot’s picks for each of the 16 games.
Copilot typically was able to easily interpret the prompt. However, it occasionally produced outdated or incorrect information, which wasn’t overly surprising, as some Large Language Models (LLMs) struggle to keep up with the latest sports news and updates.
When that happened, Copilot was prompted to fix the errors and reassess the prompt.
Below is a summation of Copilot’s picks for Week 3, along with a brief, human-crafted analysis of each of the chatbot’s answers.
AI’s take: Copilot noted Josh Allen has a 13-2 record against the Dolphins and has been dominant through his first two games. The chatbot also doesn’t believe in Miami’s defense, pointing out it has allowed 33 points per game this season as a reason to steer clear of the Dolphins.
Our take: It’s hard to argue much with Copilot’s assessment, especially considering Tua Tagovailoa has a 1-3 career record and a passer rating of 87.9 in four career Thursday games.
AI’s take: Copilot is impressed by Jordan Love‘s “hot start,” during which he has thrown for 480 yards and four touchdowns. It also isn’t confident that Cleveland’s “shaky” offensive line will hold up against Green Bay’s Micah Parsons-led pass rush.
Our take: The Packers have looked the part of the NFL’s best defense through two weeks, limiting the Lions and Commanders to an average of 15.5 points per game. The Browns seem unlikely to find more consistent success against Jeff Hafley’s unit, giving Green Bay an edge in this matchup.
AI’s take: Copilot likes Jonathan Taylor’s matchup against a Titans defense that has allowed 300 rushing yards over the season’s first two weeks. It also thinks Daniel Jones‘ “resurgence” gives the Colts the quarterback edge, as Cam Ward is “still adjusting” to the NFL.
Our take: It’s easy to understand why Copilot likes the Colts. Jones looks like a perfect fit for Shane Steichen’s offense and ranks second in the NFL in passing yards thus far with 588.
AI’s take: Copilot gave Jake Browning the edge in this Week 3 battle of backups. It wasn’t confident that Carson Wentz would thrive behind Minnesota’s banged-up offensive line given his “lack of mobility under pressure.”
Our take: Copilot may be overestimating the Bengals‘ ability to generate pressure against Wentz, as the Bengals rank 26th league-wide in pressure rate (29.3%). That could give Wentz enough time to make plays, which would make him an upgrade over the injured J.J. McCarthy.
AI’s take: Copilot is on board with many other analysts in expecting “a rebound performance” from Aaron Rodgers. The chatbot also believes the Steelers’ defense will eventually round into form, even if Drake Maye‘s “mobility and creativity” could create challenges for the unit.
Our take: Pittsburgh’s defense hasn’t been at all inspiring, allowing both the fourth-most yards and points per game thus far in 2025. That could position the Patriots to pull off an upset if Rodgers is uneven and star cornerback Christian Gonzalez is able to play.
AI’s take: Copilot noted that Jalen Hurts has been “efficient” despite not yet throwing for a touchdown but also praised Matthew Stafford for “looking sharp” against the Titans. However, the chatbot is concerned about the Rams quarterback “facing a tougher defense” against the Eagles this week, so it prefers to trust the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Our take: The Eagles only rank 11th in defensive EPA per play, but it’s worth noting they held the Chiefs in check with Jalen Carter back on the field. Perhaps they can do the same against Stafford, especially if they can pressure the 37-year-old.
AI’s take: Tyrod Taylor is set to start in place of Justin Fields (concussion), which Copilot believes “limits the Jets’ offensive ceiling.” The chatbot also expressed concerns about the Jets defense, which has allowed point totals of 32 and 30 in its two season-opening losses.
Our take: The Buccaneers are dealing with some key injuries to Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke at offensive tackle. If neither plays, that may give the Jets a chance to pressure Baker Mayfield and keep this game close. Still, it’s hard to recommend picking the Jets outright while starting Taylor, a 36-year-old backup.
AI’s take: Copilot isn’t concerned about the possibility of Jayden Daniels (knee) missing this game. It called Marcus Mariota a “seasoned veteran” and noted it likes his experience and “familiarity” with Washington’s offense. The chatbot also expressed optimism the Commanders could “neutralize” rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, which would put pressure on Geno Smith to carry Las Vegas’ offense.
Our take: Smith is fresh off a three-interception game against the Chargers, so it’s understandable Copilot would want to fade him. But will Mariota be able to do enough if the Commander can’t improve what has thus far been a lackluster running game? That’s the big question.
AI’s take: Copilot likes Atlanta’s balanced offense, noting Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson have both performed well and efficiently during the early stages of the 2025 NFL season. The chatbot also pointed out the Panthers rank just 29th in offensive DVOA and haven’t had the offensive firepower needed to overcome that weakness.
Our take: The Panthers are averaging 16 points per game through two weeks, and most of their scoring came while already down three scores against the Cardinals. Don’t expect them to move the ball well on an Atlanta team that suddenly seems to have a legitimate pass rush and ranks second in defensive EPA per play.
AI’s take: Copilot was evidently impressed by Trevor Lawrence against the Bengals, saying the fifth-year quarterback “showed flashes of brilliance” in Jacksonville’s 31-27 defeat. The chatbot also highlighted Travis Etienne Jr. (7.1 yards per carry) as “a key factor” for the Jaguars while expressing concerns about the Texans offensive line’s “struggles to protect” C.J. Stroud.
Our take: It’s hard to be confident in Houston’s offensive line, but will DeMeco Ryans’ squad really fall to 0-3? It’s hard to imagine that happening, so perhaps Stroud and the Texans will find a way to move the ball more consistently after consecutive one-possession losses.
AI’s take: Copilot believes the dichotomy between Justin Herbert and Bo Nix could decide this game. The chatbot has enjoyed Herbert’s “MVP-level start,” while also highlighting Nix’s four turnovers and the inconsistent performance of Denver’s offense.
Our take: Herbert ranks No. 1 overall in USA TODAY Sports’ quarterback power rankings for Week 3, ahead of the likes of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. As long as he’s playing that well, it’s hard to make a case against Copilot’s pick.
AI’s take: Kenneth Walker III broke out after a slow Week 1, and Copilot is confident in that continuing moving forward. It thinks Seattle’s running game will “control the tempo and keep pressure off” quarterback Sam Darnold, allowing the Seahawks to get a win over the Saints.
Our take: The Saints have played tougher than expected through two games, but this will be their first road outing of the season. It’s never easy to play in Seattle, and Spencer Rattler could be rattled by what should be a loud environment.
AI’s take: Copilot doesn’t like either defense in this game, noting they have both allowed an excess of 30 points per game thus far in 2025. As such, the chatbot is predicting a shootout during which it expects Dak Prescott and his top receivers, CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, to dominate a banged-up Bears secondary.
Our take: A shootout seems about right for this matchup given how each defense has played. It was a bit eyebrow-raising that Copilot listed Dallas’ pass rush as one that could give Caleb Williams issues, if only because the team so recently traded Parsons.
AI’s take: Copilot was encouraged by how Mac Jones played against the Saints and noted Christian McCaffrey had been “a reliable weapon” for the team. It also pointed out the Cardinals allowed 20-plus points in each of their two outings despite playing “weaker offenses” helmed by Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young.
Our take: Considering the Cardinals nearly blew a fourth-quarter lead against the Panthers, it’s fair to fade them here. Jones is a nice fit for Kyle Shanahan’s system and should do well as long as he’s not asked to make too many deep, downfield throws.
AI’s take: Copilot is backing the Chiefs for a simple reason. They haven’t started 0-3 ever in the Patrick Mahomes era, so they seem poised to bounce back against a weaker opponent. It justified that by pointing out the Giants’ rank of 27th in EPA per play and opining Russell Wilson would “struggle against Steve Spagnuolo’s man-heavy blitz schemes.”
Our take: The Chiefs are going to have issues on offense until they can either better establish the run or get their top receivers back, but they should still beat the Giants.
AI’s take: Copilot is expecting Lamar Jackson “to deliver an MVP-caliber performance” against the Lions. It also praised Jared Goff for his hot start to the season, he has produced a league-high six passing touchdowns through two weeks, but noted the Lions’ offense could struggle against a “top-tier Ravens defense.”
Our take: Goff is 0-3 for his career against the Ravens and has never thrown a touchdown pass in 120 attempts against them. As such, it’s hard to recommend trusting the Lions in this spot, especially considering the typical drop-off Goff endures when playing outdoors.
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